Predicting Happiness? Guess Again

By Gene Pinder

Think you can predict your future happiness?

Guess again.

A number of studies have consistently shown that we all incorrectly predict whether or not something in the future will make us happy.

Here's one quick example.

Associate professors were asked to estimate their overall level of happiness if they made tenure or were denied it. The results of the study? It found (at least in the short term) that those who were given tenure were less happy than they expected, and those professors who were denied tenure were actually happier than they predicted.

Think about that the next time you consider changing jobs or buying a new car. Will you be as happy as you think you will be? Probably not.

The same is true, by the way, for overly pessimistic predictions. We tend to be both overly optimistic and pessimistic. In fact, psychology author and researcher Dan Gilbert says that most events in our lives have a small impact that don't last very long.

Along those same lines -- most of us return to a state of personal happiness after some specific events. Some researchers have dubbed this the "hedonic treadmill." That is, something happens in your life which changes (sometimes dramatically) your well-being. Perhaps you win the lottery or get seriously injured in a car crash. But eventually, according to the experts, whether it's elation or sadness -- you eventually fall back into your normal range of happiness. That's why lottery winners over time don't report themselves any happier, even with the kind of cash most of us can only dream about.

Of course, other studies have pointed out that some people never return to their happiness "baseline." The loss of a spouse may seriously and permanently affect a person's well-being.

What's to be learned?

Keep an even keel when steering the waters of happiness and well-being.

Gene Pinder is the assistant director of an executive master's program at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He is also the author of The Psychology of Satisfaction and Happiness, a blog focusing on the current science and research of well-being. A journalist and marketer by training, Gene is also an artist of original oils and acrylic paintings.

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